I’ve got to admit I’m a little befuddled by this one. I’ve been covering bass tournaments for a long time, but the ones I find hardest to predict are the smaller- to low-weight tournaments. When anglers start saying that 10, 11, or 12 pounds a day will be enough to make the cut, that’s when it becomes hardest to pick favorites, I think. Lake Norman is shaping up to be that kind of tournament.
The pros are catching a lot of fish in practice here; the problem is that most of them weigh in the 1 1/2- to 2-pound range. When everybody’s catching the same 2-pound fish, it’s hard to judge who’s going to come out ahead in the end.
The X factor here is the bedding bass. Surely, there are some pros who’ve found a few bigger bass on beds in practice, and if they can catch them during the tournament, those will be the guys you want in your picks. Problem is, everybody I’ve talked to has said that, yes, they’re finding fish on beds, but the ones they’re finding aren’t all that big. Part of that might stem from the fact that they’re not actually hooking them and pulling them out of the water to see how big they are – they’re letting them sit until tournament time – but it could be that many of the fish left on beds right now really just aren’t all that big.
This event seems to be suffering from a minor identity crisis. Just like my buddy Rob Newell predicted, we still don’t know whether this thing will be won with spawning or postspawn bass. Yes, there are bedding fish out there to be caught, but the anglers would rather have a go at bigger ones than what they’re seeing up next to the bank. That means the bigger ones are likely out a little deeper under docks and in brushpiles, but they’re just not quite into that full postspawn-bite mode yet. A lot of guys are wishing the tournament was being held a week or two later than it is when the sun’s a little higher and warmer; then they could really lock into some big-bass postspawn patterns like they saw here last year.
When that happens – when a tournament hits a fishery’s transitional period like this – the outcome tends to boil down to the anglers who happen upon just a single big fish or two each day. There are too many techniques, baits and strategies being bandied about by the anglers in practice – what Craig Powers likes to call “junk-fishing” – to get a firm grasp on what’s going to work the best to catch those kickers. That said, when Craig Powers starts smiling and talking about junk-fishing is usually the time he starts to win tournaments. So he might not be a bad pick.
What I guess I’m saying is that there is no hard, discernible fishing trend so far at Lake Norman on which to base your picks, from what I’ve seen. When everybody’s junk-fishing and brings in five 2-pound fish a day, the difference on the results sheet between 10 and 11 pounds is enormous. There will be big bags of fish caught here by a few – and they will lead the tournament – but they’ll be caught by guys who’ve either managed to luck into a few big ones on bed or stumbled into a few big postspawn cruisers under docks. Who those pros will be remains to be seen.
When it’s tough to find a common thread for a tournament, my gut tells me to go with the “locals and legends” approach to making picks. Locals tend to be “luckier” than most at finding bigger bass when it comes to lower-weight, high-fishing-pressure tournaments held in proximity to urban areas. In that vein, legends are basically locals by proxy because they’ve fished tournament lakes like this a thousand times before. It’s no accident that Larry Nixon won here last year.
It’s not rocket science, but it’s a tried-and-true approach to predicting fishing tournaments. So if you’re still unsure about your Lake Norman picks, like I am, it probably won’t hurt to utilize that Local Finder to help you out. There are a lot of North Carolina pros in there who qualify as both a “local” and a “legend” for this one. That makes it easy.