Pundits’ Picks
FLW Outdoors writers present their last round of Conseco Fishing Challenge picks for the 2002 season: the FLW Championship at Cross Lake.
“I’ve now reached a point where I am incapable of losing to any of them.”
– Pundit Gary Mortenson, in June’s “Pundits’ Picks,” describing his self-proclaimed superiority at picking more pro winners than the other three pundits.
hu·bris: n. Overbearing pride or presumption; arrogance. (American Heritage Dictionary)
It must be admitted, fellow Conseco Challengers, that Gary Mortenson has indeed put on quite a show of prognostication throughout the season. Among the four of us so-called pundits, he has won three tournaments out of six and has yet to finish in last place.
He’s great, isn’t he? Just ask him.
Still – as they say – the bigger they are, the harder they fall. When the final results rolled in from the most recent round of Pundits’ Picks, at Lake Champlain, the great Morte fell like a ton of bricks. Not only did I defeat Mortenson by a gargantuan 15 points, I scored the second-highest point total of any pundit all year long. Thus, not since the day that Brutus slew the ambitious Caesar have we seen such a triumph of humility and efficacy over unbridled hubris and ineptitude. Here is the official point tally from the glorious contest that was the Champlain Pundits’ Picks:
Jeff Schroeder: 1,019
Gary Mortenson: 1,004
Dave Washburn: 1,003
Rob Newell: 978
I humbly admit that, as far as the competition was concerned, my sheer mastery at Champlain left something to be desired in the excitement department. But, like those who witnessed Tiger Woods crush at the 1997 Masters, how can you not appreciate such a historic display of utter dominance?
Perhaps the competitive thrill belonged to Mortenson and Dave Washburn, who – like the 1-ounce showdown between Sam Newby and Dean Rojas in the Champlain finals – battled to within a single point of each other for second best. (Sorry about your luck, Dave. Must be rough having to read these introductions time after time.)
Or perhaps Pundits’ Picks fans delighted in watching Rob Newell’s brave, but still unsuccessful, struggle finally to cross that mean ol’ 1,000-point barrier (hereafter known as the “Newell Line”), which he has yet to break the entire season. (Nobody can save you now, Rob. Not even Clark Wendlandt.)
Now, on to Cross Lake. It’s reasonable to assume that it’s going to be relatively easier to drive home the top six at the FLW Championship since there are only 48 pros from which to choose, as opposed to the normal field of 175 or so. But not so fast. At this tournament, fellow Conseco Challengers, we’re all going to be swinging at curveballs.
First of all, there’s the new bracket tournament format, which is a complete departure from the regular-season format. That means, despite many pros’ assertions that they will still just be “fishing against the fish,” prognosticators will have to look at the opening-round matchups. Chris Baumgardner (18) vs. Roger Crafton (31)? Who knows? Pat Fisher (12) vs. Stanley Mitchell (37)? Hard to guess. Even Jay Yelas (1) vs. Harmon Davis (48) is much more of a tossup than you might think. But pundits are going to have to choose. Also, remember to avoid picking two pros fishing in the same bracket since only one can advance.
Secondly, there’s Cross Lake itself, the great equalizer. Most of these guys claim never to have fished there much before this event; much less do we have records of their performances if they have. None of them would exactly call Cross Lake their home waters. The pros who will do well will be the ones who can figure things out really quickly. That alone might push pundits towards picking the more established and hot pros like VanDam, Yelas, Martens, Wendlandt, etc., except:
Thirdly, there’s the “slot monster” factor. A 14- to 17-inch slot limit on Cross Lake could have competitors throwing back a whole slew of good 2- and 3-pound bass. It’s highly possible that the guy who catches the most bass can’t weigh in a single one of them. They either have to catch them big or small – there’s no in-between. As of Thursday before the tournament, the slot limit was still in effect, and that means a pundit who throws darts at the bracket sheet might be just as effective as one who makes educated picks.
In other words, good luck fellow Conseco Challengers. This one’s going to be tough.
But take heart. Even if your picks somehow manage unfortunately to land in 42nd through 48th place when all is said and done, you can count on this: You will still probably beat the lowly likes of three also-rans named Gary, Dave and Rob.
Et tu, Morte?
So, without further ado, here is the final installment of Pundits’ Picks in 2002.
– Jeff
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Wal-Mart FLW Tour stop #7
FLW Championship
Cross Lake, Shreveport, La.
Sept. 11-14
Jeff Schroeder
Editor, FLWOutdoors.com
Last tournament score (Lake Champlain): 1,019
Overall score: 5,090
1) Aaron Martens (16th seed). You heard it here first (though it’s not much of a stretch): Martens will be the 2002 FLW Championship winner. While FLW Angler of the Year and Bassmaster Classic champion Jay Yelas seems to be the hottest pro out there right now, Martens is arguably the toughest competitor in the pro ranks right now. Not only did he finish second at the Classic, Martens is the only pro to qualify for the FLW Championship this year despite skipping a tournament (Lake Ouachita) and losing as many as 200 standings points because of it. He’s focused enough to handle the tough Cross Lake fishing and the head-to-head competition, he catches them big enough every single day to make the top two in the finals, and he always scores big points for me in these picks.
2) Clark Wendlandt (4). Mr. Kellogg’s doesn’t have a win all season for the first time since 1998. Think he’s not hungry? Cross Lake is shallow, and that’s where he likes his bass. This could be a tossup between Wendlandt and Martens, but, whatever the outcome, it will be one fine final-round showdown between them for the top two spots. Wendlandt, however, will fall just short of Martens on Saturday and fail to clinch his customary yearly victory.
3) Rick Clunn (11). The mental master thrives in low-weight events. If the slot monster’s a factor, Clunn will be, too. If anybody can use the Jedi mind trick to coax those 17-inchers and above into biting his lure, it’s Clunn. To make the finals, he’s going to have to come out of the heavyweight bracket, first defeating Paul Elias, then Larry Nixon or Tom Mann Jr., but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. And, I’m sure, so is he.
4) Dean Rojas (3). “Rojas” means “red” in Spanish. That’s what this Arizona pro is right now: red-hot. Four times this year he has fished beyond the opening round, including two top-fives. Just 1 ounce away from victory at Lake Champlain, Rojas has tasted the salsa, and now it’s time to go for the super burrito. He tends to find the big bass, which is exactly what will be on the menu for Cross Lake contenders.
5) Wesley Strader (15). Strader seems to have favorable matchups in his bracket. Brent Chapman will put up a fight the first two days, but “Sweets” will persevere. No offense to these guys, but I think he also walks over Greg Hackney or Kim Stricker in the semis. Strader hasn’t top-10ed in a while, so it feels like he’s about due.
6) Kevin VanDam (2). The picks would be incomplete without him. He falls to the No. 6 spot, though, because of his last two finishes in major tournaments (44th at the FLW Forrest Wood Open and 26th at the Bassmaster Classic). But, like my friend Rob Newell says, you can’t win Pundits’ Picks without VanDam. Not that Newell would know anyway.
Gary Mortenson
Editor, FLWOutdoors.com
Last tournament score: 1,004
Overall score: 5,420
1) Rick Clunn. The FLW Championship is being held at Cross Lake, an intriguing body of water very few FLW anglers have fished before. It’s an exceptionally small tournament lake, so fishing pressure almost certainly will play a big factor. And, there is the potential that a very tough slot limit (14 to 17 inches) will be in place as well. Add it all up and it’s easy to conclude that this just may be the toughest tournament these anglers are going to fish all year. In fact, the fishing could be so tough that the only way to catch these fish is to think like them. Enter Rick Clunn. If anyone can communicate directly with the fish – or most other wildlife for that matter – it’s got to be this gentleman. The fact that Clunn is due to rebound sooner or later from a “down” year only adds to my conviction that the Zen Master is the man to beat. I can see the headlines now: “Clunn crowned champion on Cross Lake.”
2) David Dudley (7). When there is big money on the line, David Dudley Inc. can usually be found sniffing around the finals with his trademark cat-ate-the-canary grin. In fact, he already has one big-money tournament under his belt – a $700,000 win at the Ranger M1 tournament in February. He’s also been one of the hottest and most consistent anglers on the tour all year. From a competitive standpoint, there are few anglers who can match Dudley’s resolve. (In fact, he’s so competitive that he actually bet me that he could beat me at a gum-chewing contest one day when he was bored). Finally, I’m not going to bet against someone who has actually taken the time to have his name incorporated. I mean, you’re not just fishing against a man, you’re fishing against a veritable corporate fishing empire.
3) Aaron Martens. This is a guy who missed an entire FLW tournament and still wound up finishing the year in 16th place in the overall standings – an amazing feat by any measure. Simply put, the guy is a tremendous fisherman who is able to adapt to nearly any situation. Marten’s laid-back California resolve will prevent him from getting flustered if there is a difficult slot limit and tough bite in place. Finally, Martens closely follows Clunn as the two men on tour most likely to have a direct Zen-like pipeline to Mother Nature – which will be a big plus on Cross Lake. While some might scoff at this logic, all you have to do is ask the folks at Parkay Margarine who found out the hard way (in a bad, 1970s television commercial) that “it’s not nice to fool Mother Nature.” Advantage, Martens.
4) Clark Wendlandt. Despite the fact that he is a huge Dallas Stars fan, Wendlandt is still one of my all-time favorite anglers. In fact, I make a special note every time Wendlandt fails to reach the finals of a major tournament, because it’s such a surprise. In short, the guy is extremely versatile and already has had his picture imprinted on millions of cereal boxes throughout the country. And other than him finally admitting that the New Jersey Devils are the best hockey team in the nation, what else do you want from the guy?
5) Jay Yelas (1). For starters, the Texan has already won the 2002 FLW Angler-of-the-Year title as well as the 2002 Bassmaster Classic. If that weren’t enough, he firmly believes he has the blessing of the Big Man Upstairs. And who am I to argue otherwise? Throw in the fact that he’s been the hottest angler on every major bass-fishing circuit during the past four months, and you have yourself a winner.
6) Kevin VanDam. You really didn’t think I was going to compile a list of FLW Championship favorites without including Van Dam on my list? No, I didn’t think so. Anyway, just to prove that I’m the master of the obvious, Van Dam has been the best and most consistent angler on the planet for the past two years, and maybe even longer than that. Plus, after losing the Angler-of-the-Year title to Yelas by the smallest of margins, Van Dam is going to return to the championship with something to prove. And, personally, I’m getting out of the way. In sum, I’m going to go out on a limb here and declare that the best angler in the world won’t be missing from action when the big money is paid out. It’s just a hunch, of course.
Dave Washburn
Executive editor, FLW Outdoors
Last tournament score: 1,003
Overall score: 5,107
1) Jay Yelas. Okay, I’m taking the easy road picking the No. 1 seed, right? Wrong. This Yamaha pro certainly has the momentum on his side, but anything can happen on Cross Lake. So how did I end up with Yelas as my No. 1 pick? Simple. I threw out all the statistics and went strictly on gut feeling for the opening round. Only when it came to the semifinal-round matchups did I go to the record books. There you will see that, of my picks, Yelas caught the second-heaviest total weight for the season (170 pounds, 7 ounces). If he does the same on Cross Lake, he’ll be the No. 2 seed in the final round, which makes him the underdog, so to speak. That’s where the momentum and maybe a bit of divine intervention come into play, again. Anyway, the point is, you’d be a fool not to pick Yelas.
2) Dean Rojas. Like Yelas, Rojas is a relative newcomer to the Wal-Mart FLW Tour. Also like Yelas, he is no stranger to championship-caliber competition. Rojas is the No. 3 seed coming into the tournament, but he is my No. 1 seed in the final round based on catching 178 pounds, 14 ounces of bass this season. In the ensuing final-round battle between the Yamaha pros, Rojas is going to fall a few ounces short to Yelas.
3) Sam Newby (5). I may be going out on a limb here, but I’m picking Newby to knock off VanDam in the final round to take third place. Newby, in just his first full season on the Wal-Mart FLW Tour, qualified for the championship as the No. 5 seed. He came up through the Wal-Mart Bass Fishing League and EverStart Series ranks, and he has proven that he can hang with the big boys. Like Yelas, he enters the championship on a high note after winning the Forrest Wood Open. He is my number No. 4 seed in the final round based on catching 164 pounds, 7 ounces of bass this season.
4) Kevin VanDam. VanDam is the consummate pro. He enters the championship as the No. 2 seed, but he lacks Newby’s momentum, which we all know can be a determining factor. This Chevy pro has earned four second-place finishes and a third-place finish in three years fishing the Wal-Mart FLW Tour. Due to the cancellation of last year’s championship, which would have started Sept. 12, he missed his shot at unifying the championship crowns. Now it’s Yelas’ turn. VanDam is my No. 3 seed in the final round based on catching 165 pounds, 8 ounces of bass this season, but he is going to fall to the underdog, Newby.
5) Clark Wendlandt. As unofficial captain of Team Kellogg’s, Wendlandt has been an angler to watch all season. He enters the championship as the No. 4 seed, and based on my nonscientific formula, he will advance to the final round as the No. 5 seed (163 pounds, 5 ounces for the season). That means he will fish against Castrol’s David Dudley. And while it’s never safe to bet against an angler who has been known to carry a chain saw (as Dudley did in the Ranger M1), I simply can’t bring myself to bet against Wendlandt in this matchup.
6) David Dudley. Packing a chain saw probably won’t be in Dudley’s game plan on Cross Lake. He is one of the best, though, and he enters the championship as the No. 7 seed. He will beat Gerald Swindle in the opening round and top either Chris Baumgardner or Roger Crafton in the semifinal round. He’s my No. 6 seed in the final round based on catching 156 pounds, 4 ounces of bass this season, and that is where he is going to finish.
Rob Newell
Contributing editor, FLW Outdoors
Last tournament score: 978
Overall score: 5,228
1) Clark Wendlandt. You know the drill.
2) Bernie Schultz (8). At the BFL All-American on Cross Lake this year, Steve Kennedy nearly won the event by ignoring big fish and catching a limit of 12- to 14-inch fish each day. I think the strategy of committing to the under-slot fish each day has merit. If there are any takers for such a strategy, it will be Bernie Schultz. He is a master at “dink fests” where survival is the name of the game. Plus, Cross Lake has some similar characteristics to the “shallow bowls” he grew up fishing in Florida. Armed with a spinning rod, Schultz will dink his way into the top five.
3) Kevin VanDam. Yes, I know, VanDam is everybody’s pick. But here is why: Cross Lake is small (8,000 acres), and, considering the speed at which VanDam fishes, chances are he will fish around the whole lake three times per day, tripling his chances.
4) Rick Clunn. Clunn’s bracket is Clunn vs. Elias, then winner of that must face the winner of Tom Mann Jr. and Larry Nixon. Combined, that has got to be more than a hundred years of fishing experience in one four-man bracket. Call me biased, but I will take the Jedi Master in this one.
5) Dion Hibdon (19). While VanDam is burning up the bank, his alter ego, Dion Hibdon, will be seining Cross Lake’s docks with a slow, meticulous approach. Fortunately, these two anglers are not in the same bracket so I can cover both ends of the fishing-pace spectrum.
6) Gerald Swindle (42). Cross Lake is 8,000 acres of cypress trees and docks. The place is like a casting obstacle course where accurate casts are rewarded with unpressured fish. For that I call on the G-Man, Gerald Swindle. The guy can skip a 10-pound boat anchor through a dock crevice. Of course, a boat anchor is not a very good lure, but it sure keeps the competition away.
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